Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Global Meltdown 1929 Repeated


Stock Market is at all time low and everyone is discussing about Global Meltdown and its all possible effects on Indian economy and Indian Investors. Fear has taken toll over Greed and now everyone is worried with one Common Question – What’s NEXT?

Stock Market is always acting as a barometer of any Economy. Current level of stock market has pushed us to the year 2006 where Sensex was at the level of 10,000. It took 28 years for Sensex to reach at the level of 12000 in year 2007 and Sensex took only one year to reach at the level of 21000 from 12000. What happened during 2007 to 2008? Was it over optimism? The current downfall of Sensex is attributed by unprofessional practice and misjudgments of so called Master Brains. Analysts say that the current global meltdown is similar to Great Depression of 1929. Let’s look at great depression and check its similarity with current slowdown.

World war in any case is root cause of any development or devastation of economy. The freeing of capital from government to use to commercial use following World War 1, caused commodity price to inflate. In 1920, Ben Strong of the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York raised interest rates sharply to prevent inflation. This caused a recession and the stock market to fall. Once hard assets like commodities and real estate were no longer rising in price, money began to pour into stocks and bonds. The Dow started climbing from its low at 63.90 in 1921 and rose 150% over the four years to 1925. 

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